According to The Drinks Business, following the “roller-coaster” of 2025, the fine wine market is cautiously optimistic about 2026. The latest report from Liv-ex highlights significant market shifts from the previous year, providing insights into what might lie ahead.
One of the most notable developments is the return of optimism, a rare sentiment in recent months. The Liv-ex 2025 in Review report indicates that all major indices have consistently risen since September 2025, instilling a sense of hope for the fine wine sector in 2026. Particularly noteworthy is the increase in bid-to-offer ratios, which serve as a reliable indicator of market sentiment and future price movements. This positive trend continued into the autumn, with early signs of recovery emerging in the Asian market, despite ongoing fluctuations in trade.
As Tom Burchfield, head of market intelligence, noted, there is a growing belief that the market is beginning to turn a corner. European buyers have stepped in to fill the void left by a retreating US market, and if this momentum continues into the first half of the year, the fine wine market may finally be on the path to recovery.
However, uncertainty looms over the US market, primarily due to the impact of tariffs imposed by President Trump on EU alcohol. The threat of a 200% tariff in March 2025 significantly dampened market spirits, and while the tariffs were ultimately set at a lower rate of 15%, the damage was done. The weakened dollar has also made fine wine less accessible to US buyers, compounding the challenges faced by this segment.